Vikings vs. Lions: Week 7 NFL Picks & Game Predictions

Jasons 2019 NFL picks 4-4 ATS, 3-2 Totals

Imagine if we told you the Minnesota Vikings were the staff in the NFL? Hey, do not look at usFootball Outsiders possess Minnesota rated No. 4 in DVOA (No. 5 crime, No. 6 defense, No. 14 specific teams) heading into Week 7. Oh, and all of that moaning over QB Kirk Cousins does not hold water. Hes No. 8 overall in passing DVOA, three areas better than Aaron Rodgers. Numbers dont lie.

Speaking of statistics, the under-appreciated Vikings (4-2 SU and ATS) might have some betting value as 1-point road faves for Sundays game against the Detroit Lions (2-2-1 SU, 4-1 ATS). But both these North teams are profitable thus far. We might get more value in theunder now that the total has moved from 44 to as high as 46 about the NFL chances board.
Let us be sure we are on the Perfect track by Taking a Look at the projections before we break down our options:

FiveThirtyEight: Minnesota –two
Jeff Sagarin: Minnesota –5.99, 44.76 total

As we suspected. There is not much profit margin to work with for the spread, which can be standard to get the NFL regular-season game if you go with Nate Silvers team. Jeff Sagarins numbers are more bullish on Minnesota; were quoting his eigenvector disperse, but his latest spread for your Vikes is 2.94, which gets us close to that 2-point margin were searching for. Note that we are very close to the number 3.

Needless to say, if were serious about investing, we need to jump on those opening lines when theyre within our favor. The Vikings opened as a pickem before the sharps gobbled up them — but only in $58 a pop , according to the consensus accounts. Little bet, margin.
On-line proceed to the complete is somewhat intriguing. Team scoring is down from 23.3 points a game annually to 22.4, and thebelow is currently 49-43 (53.3 percent) round the league, so auto-betting that theabove to your NFL selections does not hold water right now — unless you are convinced there will be some regression to the mean, possibly in the kicking game.

The matchup on the ground things toward a lower scoring match. The Lions position No. 14 overall in DVOA, but only No. 21 on offense in contrast to No. 12 on protection (and moment on special teams). Then you have all that running across the Vikings do; theyre fourth in attempts this year.
Were looking at a small window between the odds and the projections when it comes to this complete. Let us follow the sharps, place Minnesota in our picks for a amount, and as always, will the prolate spheroid be with you.

Free NFL Pick: Vikings –1 (–105) at 5Dimes

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